2026-2027: An ambitious budget built on fragile foundations
As Burundi unveils a record-breaking 2026–2027 budget, government officials speak of recovery, investment and growth. Critics see something else: optimistic projections, weakening external financing and a widening gap between official ambitions and economic reality.
The Burundian National Assembly unanimously adopted the 2026–2027 state budget on 13 June. The government presents it as a budget of recovery and transformation, driven by investment and sustained economic growth. Yet a closer examination of the figures reveals a persistent question: how can a country facing chronic foreign currency shortages, weak exports, electricity rationing and declining external support finance its most ambitious budget in history?
The new budget projects expenditures of more than 7,020 billion Burundian francs, up by more than 30% compared with the previous fiscal year. Revenues are expected to reach 6,296 billion francs. The government forecasts economic growth of 5.5%, citing the exploitation of mineral resources, agricultural exports and ongoing development projects.
“We have the assets,” Finance Minister Dr. Alain Ndikumana told lawmakers, referring to minerals, coffee, tea, avocados and patchouli.
But several independent organizations question both the assumptions and the credibility of these projections.
Civil society raises the alarm
The Anti-Corruption and Economic Malpractices Observatory (Olucome) describes the budget as containing “unrealistic and irrational” provisions.
Its criticism is rooted in the government’s recent track record. According to budget execution reports for 2024–2025, only 29% of expected project grants were actually received, while budget support grants recorded a realization rate of 0%.
The consequence was predictable: the state turned to domestic borrowing to cover its financing needs.
For Olucome president Gabriel Rufyiri, the concern is not only the size of the deficit but the government’s decision to repeat the same assumptions despite repeated failures.
“The Observatory finds the Government’s attitude inconceivable in repeating the same mistake,” the organization states.
The mineral mirage?
The government’s optimism rests partly on expected revenues from the mining sector.
Yet budget execution figures for 2024–2025 reveal that mineral revenues generated barely 21.7% of what had been forecast. Gold accounted for the overwhelming majority of collections, while several other mineral categories generated virtually no revenue.
Despite this performance, authorities continue to cite mining as a pillar of future growth.
Economists contacted by LIONWEEK question whether current production levels and export capacities justify such expectations.
The cost of fiscal privileges
Another issue drawing scrutiny concerns tax exemptions.
According to Burundian thinktank PARCEM, cumulative exemptions during the first two quarters of the 2025–2026 fiscal year exceeded 157 billion francs, compared with 111 billion originally budgeted — an execution rate of 141%.
Who benefited from these exemptions? Under what criteria? What economic returns were generated?
To date, the government has not published a comprehensive list of beneficiaries.
PARCEM is calling for greater transparency and an independent audit by the Court of Auditors to assess the management, use and impact of these exemptions.
Without such scrutiny, the organization warns, exemptions risk becoming a hidden drain on public finances.
Growing dependence on domestic financing
Beyond the headline figures, another trend worries analysts: the decline in external financing.
According to Olucome, external financing is expected to fall from 7% of financing needs in 2025 to 4.9% by 2027.
At the same time, domestic financing continues to rise.
For a country already facing inflationary pressures and liquidity constraints, this shift raises concerns about the sustainability of public finances and the state’s capacity to finance development without crowding out private investment.
A budget at odds with economic reality?
Several indicators challenge the government’s optimistic narrative.
Burundi remains one of the poorest countries in the world. GDP per capita remains below $350 according to recent estimates. Industrial production remains weak. Private investment is limited. Businesses continue to report shortages of electricity, fuel and foreign currency.
In this context, the projected growth rate of 5.5% appears ambitious.
The central question is therefore less about the budget’s size than about its credibility.
Can projected revenues materialize when key sectors have repeatedly underperformed? Can domestic financing continue to expand without destabilizing the economy? And why does the government continue to rely on assumptions that previous budget execution reports have repeatedly contradicted?
These are the questions parliament did not ask during a vote adopted unanimously.
They remain unanswered.
